The GENIUS Act’s $10 billion stablecoin threshold is usually described as the line between state and federal stablecoin regulation. In practice, most of the issuers near it have already chosen the federal side. The line will matter less for today’s mid-sized coins than for the next fast-growing one, and for whether any state regime keeps a large issuer at all.
Under section 4(c) of the enrolled act, an issuer with $10 billion or less outstanding may opt for state regulation if the state’s regime is “substantially similar” to the federal one. Under section 4(d), an issuer that crosses $10 billion must move to the federal framework within 360 days or stop issuing until it is back below the line. Federal regulators can grant a waiver, weighing capital, examination history and the state regulator’s experience.
The mid-tier is already on the federal track
The coins between $2 billion and $10 billion look like the obvious test cases. On October 5, usd.net data showed USD1 at $4.44 billion, Global Dollar (USDG) at $3.09 billion, PYUSD at $2.91 billion and RLUSD at $2.48 billion, out of total supply of $308.85 billion. Each could cross $10 billion within a few years.
Their issuers have mostly moved already. On December 12, 2025, the OCC conditionally approved five national trust bank charters: a new charter for Circle and for Ripple, and conversions for BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets and Paxos. Paxos issues PYUSD and, through its Singapore arm, USDG; Ripple issues RLUSD; and BitGo Trust issues USD1. Circle has since received final approval for its charter, according to its second-quarter results, which shows the federal route can be completed. An issuer with a national trust charter in hand has little reason to fight for a state option it will outgrow.
The large coins sit far above the line. USDC had $74.3 billion and USDT $184.2 billion. USDS, USDe and DAI are decentralised or offshore and outside the state option altogether.
OUSD will test the $10 billion stablecoin threshold first
The real test is a coin that grows quickly from a standing start. Open USD launched on September 30 with Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, Coinbase and Shopify as founding partners and more than $1 billion of committed liquidity. Tempo’s Dan Romero expects more than $10 billion during 2027.
Its issuer, Stripe’s Bridge, has conditional OCC approval for Bridge National Trust Bank but is not yet operating it. If OUSD crosses $10 billion before that charter is live, the 360-day clock starts, and the waiver criteria become the practical question. That pattern, rapid partner-driven growth outrunning a charter process, is what the threshold was written for.
The waiver is the only route by which an issuer above the line stays under state supervision. Its criteria favour states with long examination records and well-capitalised issuers, which in practice points to a small number of experienced regulators.
The states now have to certify
The state side is being built now. Treasury’s interim final rule of September 30 sets the forms and procedures for the Stablecoin Certification Review Committee to review state certifications. It took effect on publication, but certifications will not be accepted until the paperwork clearance is approved, and comments are due November 30. The committee is chaired by the Treasury Secretary with the Fed and FDIC chairs, and must act unanimously within 30 days, according to a Coinpaprika summary. A denied state has 180 days to fix and resubmit, then can appeal.
Separately, Treasury’s section 3 proposal on issuance, offer and sale, published on August 18, closes for comment on October 19. The Fed’s two proposals, approved on September 24, close on November 30 and include a 120-day application track for state member bank subsidiaries, one-to-one reserves in high-quality liquid assets and a ban on rehypothecation.
A state regime with no large issuers to supervise will struggle to show the “experience” the waiver test asks for, which makes the certification process a test of state relevance as much as of rules.
Bottom line
Few stablecoin issuers will stay state-chartered by choice once they approach $10 billion, and most of the likely candidates already hold conditional federal charters. The threshold will bite on fast growers such as OUSD and on states trying to keep a meaningful supervisory role. The next two months of comment deadlines will shape both.
Watch for:
- Comments on Treasury’s section 3 proposal by October 19
- The first state certification filed under the September 30 rule
- Whether Bridge National Trust Bank opens before OUSD nears $10 billion