Tag: stock market

  • 2 of Brazil’s biggest fintechs eye U.S. IPOs

    2 of Brazil’s biggest fintechs eye U.S. IPOs

    Across the globe, momentum is building for fintech IPOs as equities markets continue to surge, shrugging off economic uncertainty and geopolitical tension. Two of Brazil’s largest fintechs, Agibank and PicPay, are both planning to list on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), which attracted seven of the 10 largest IPOs in 2025.

    Among them were some of the biggest fintech firms in the world, Sweden’s Klarna and the U.S.’s Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin. The deals were blockbusters, with Klarna raising $1.37 billion and Circle raising $1.01 billion. 

    The most successful Latin American fintech IPO thus far occurred in December 2021, when Warren Buffet-backed Brazilian digital banking giant Nubank listed on the NYSE. Since that market debut, Nubank’s share price has risen 45%. 

    Agibank filed for its IPO in mid-January. The Sao Paulo-based digital bank had planned to go public in Brazil in 2018, but chose instead to pursue a U.S. listing.

    Agibank is listing on the NYSE for access to deeper liquidity, global investor recognition, and to complete a strategic shift towards international digital banking. The move aims to capitalize on renewed investor interest in growth stocks after a lull in Brazilian IPOs. 

    The NYSE offers a larger pool of capital and better access to global investors than Brazil’s B3 exchange. Listing on a premier U.S. exchange enhances a company’s prestige and signals adherence to high regulatory standards, which is important to attract international investors. The move also represents the final step in Agibank’s transformation from a local lender into a global digital bank, a path pursued since a failed 2018 IPO attempt.

    Indeed, Brazilian IPO activity stopped altogether ​in 2022 due to a confluence of factors. These included market volatility, soaring interest rates, high inflation, and political uncertainty surrounding the upcoming presidential election. The risk-averse sentiment among investors discouraged companies from listing, leading to deal cancellations and postponements. 

    However, the year leading up to those listings had been one of the best ever for Brazilian IPO activity. IPO proceeds in 2021 totaled US$14.73 billion, a five-year high and almost double the US$8.47 billion raised in 2020. 

    “The four-year drought in Brazilian IPOs has built up the pipeline of companies ready to go public. It ⁠speaks volumes that they’re [Agibank] finally choosing to move forward now,” Matt Kennedy, a senior ‍strategist at Renaissance Capital, told Reuters. 

    The Brazilian digital financial platform PicPay also plans to list on the NYSE. PicPay said on Jan. 20 that it plans to raise US$400 million by offering 22.9 million shares at a price range of $16 to $19. At the midpoint of the proposed range, the company would command a fully diluted market value of $2.3 billion.

    PicPay, which is backed by Brazilian billionaire brothers Wesley and Joesley Batista’s J&F Investimentos, had previously pursued a U.S. listing in 2021. However, it put that plan on ice due to market headwinds.  

    Founded in 2012, PicPay has grown into Brazil’s second-largest digital bank by customer base after Nubank. PicPay serves about 66 million clients and offers a broad array of financial products from credit cards and loans to cryptocurrency trading and insurance.  

    In the first nine months of 2025, PicPay reported revenue of US$1.37 billion and net income of US$59 million. During this period, consumer deposits also reached US$5 billion.

    Successful IPOs on the NYSE by Agibank and PicPay would signal a vote of investor confidence in not just those two firms, but the broader Brazilian fintech market. Despite intensifying competition in Brazil, there remains significant room for fintechs to expand given the large population of the country (213 million) and incumbent weaknesses. Brazil can also act as a springboard for expansion into other Latin American markets, as Nubank has shown with its growth in Mexico and Colombia. 

  • Why the Taiwan Stock Exchange had an incredible year in 2025

    Why the Taiwan Stock Exchange had an incredible year in 2025

    Geopolitical tumult and economic uncertainty across the world failed in 2025 to shake investor confidence in equity markets, with Taiwan being one of the best examples of this phenomenon. The Taiwan Stock Exchange (TAIEX) set six records in 2025 and could soon overtake Canada’s stock market (TSX) to become the world’s No. 6 stock market by capitalization.  

    Taiwan Stock Exchange data showed that six key indicators reached all-time highs last year. These included the year-end benchmark index, average daily turnover, total market capitalization of listed firms, combined revenue of listed companies, funds raised through IPOs, and securities transaction tax revenue.

    Some 2025 highlights: In the first 11 months of last year, total revenue generated by all listed companies hit a historic high of NT$42.89 trillion. The TAIEX closed the final trading session of last year at 28,963.6 points, while average daily turnover reached a record NT$416 billion (US$13.17 billion). Further, 45 companies applied to be listed in 2025, the highest number since 2008, while IPO fundraising reached a record NT$85 billion.

    By the end of 2025, total market capitalization of listed companies reached NT$94.36 trillion, placing Taiwan eighth globally by market value. Meanwhile, the rally has extended into early 2026. When market cap rose to NT$99.6 trillion earlier this month, the TAIEX overtook France’s Paris Bourse to become the No. 7 market globally.

    A key factor driving the TAIEX’s exceptional performance in 2025 was the global AI boom. This fueled massive demand for Taiwanese semiconductors, especially from tech giants like Nvidia, Broadcom, OpenAI, Google, Meta, and Micron.

    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, has played a central role in the TAIEX rally. Its stock price reached several all-time highs in 2025 and did so again on Jan. 16. TSMC is the top supplier of advanced chips (like 2 nm nodes) for AI data centers.

    With the TAIEX showing no sign of slowing down, we wonder, how long can this rally go on? Surely, what goes up must come down—eventually.

    To be sure, like the broader Taiwanese economy, the TAIEX is overly dependent on TSMC. The chipmaking giant represents a significant portion—ranging from 33% to 40%—of the index’s total market value. For many years, there have been concerns about the lack of diversification in the Taiwan stock market and potential vulnerability to AI market shifts or geopolitical events.  

    Taiwanese lawmakers have noted that the imbalance in the stock market reflects broader weaknesses in non-tech segments of Taiwan’s economy. “The market structure has lost its balance,” lawmaker Lin Te-fu in early January. “Many investors who do not hold TSMC cannot share in the benefits created by the TAIEX’s rise.” Lin further noted that 1,263 out of the 1,947 companies (64.87 percent) listed on the local main board and the OTC market still moved below their 240-day moving average, indicating a subpar performance.

    Given TSMC’s and the broader Taiwan tech sector’s strengths, the TAEIX is likely to remain strong in the short to medium term. However, the risk of an AI market correction at some point is real, and that would have significant implications for Taiwan’s stock exchange.

    The Bank of England, the IMF, and figures like Ray Dalio have warned that valuations for AI companies are reaching unsustainable levels, potentially creating a bubble. At the same time, many analysts question whether AI companies can generate enough revenue to justify the massive, multi-trillion-dollar investments in related infrastructure, such as data centers.

    A bursting of the AI bubble could lead to a global recession and wipe out $20 trillion in U.S. household wealth and $15 trillion for foreign investors.

    Even if the risk is mild to moderate, Taiwan should still brace for potential stock market shocks from an AI bubble bursting.