Tag: capital markets

  • Why the K Bank IPO is a crapshoot 

    Why the K Bank IPO is a crapshoot 

    South Korean digital lender K Bank has been talking about an IPO for years, literally. Since 2022, the company has twice aborted plans to go public. In early November, it formally filed for a third time, aiming to go public in the first half of 2026 on the Korea Stock Exchange (KOSPI). Both the company and investors are hoping this third time is the charm.

    In some ways, K Bank is stuck between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, it is bound by a conditional rights offering from May 2021 that requires an IPO by July 2026. Investors, including Bain Capital and MBK Partners, injected 725 billion won into the South Korean digital lender at that time under the condition that if the IPO does not happen by July 2026, they can exercise their “drag-along rights” to sell their shares as well as those of top K Bank shareholder BC Card to recover their investment.

    While BC Card secured a “call option” back in 2021, which gives it the right to buy back the shares of the other K Bank investors first, doing so would be expensive. BC Card would probably have to pay 1 trillion won (almost 63% of its own capital) to cover the investors’ initial 725 billion won plus an 8% promised internal rate of return.

    Because of that promised 8% annual return, K Bank needs to achieve an IPO valuation of 4-5 trillion won, which is ambitious given its financials. K Bank posted a record quarterly profit of 68.2 billion won in the second quarter, but that figure fell to 19.2 billion won in the third quarter, down 48% year-on-year.  Net profit in the first nine months of the year also dropped by 15.5% year-on-year to 103.4 billion won.

    However, K Bank has performed well overall in recent years. Its 2024 net profit of 128.1 billion won was nearly 10 times as large as its 2023 profit of 12.8 billion won. It also had 12.74 million customers by the end of 2024.

    The Asia Business Daily noted that K-Bank’s target price-to-book ratio (PBR) for its desired IPO price is 2.5 times, well above the Kakao Bank PBR of 1.6 times. To reach its target IPO valuation of 4 trillion to 5 trillion won, “K Bank must prove its platform value exceeds that of Kakao Bank,” the newspaper said. “However, it remains uncertain whether the market will view K Bank as a platform company.”

    It is true that Kakao Bank achieved a whopping 18.5 trillion won IPO valuation when it listed on the KOSPI in November 2021, but that was at the height of a tech startup bubble that rapidly deflated after the company went public. Kakao Bank’s stock has lost almost 70% of its value since the IPO.

    Meanwhile, regulators are probing K Bank’s close ties with leading South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Upbit. K Banks has had a real-name account partnership with Upbit since 2020.  

    The financial authorities plan to closely review whether K Bank has thoroughly detailed investment risk factors, including its concentration of funds from Upbit, in the securities registration statement. Regulators are evaluating the possibility of a temporary liquidity issue at K Bank if the Upbit partnership were to end and what the bank’s contingency plan would be.

    Auguring well for K Bank is that it has significantly reduced its Upbit exposure in recent years. The partnership began in June 2020, and by 2021 K Bank was reliant on the cryptocurrency exchange for about half of its deposits. However, as of the second quarter this year, of Kbank’s total deposit balance of 26.8 trillion won, about 4.4 trillion won (16.42%) are Upbit escrow funds, compared to 50% in 2021.

  • Why did GCash delay its IPO until H2 2026?

    Why did GCash delay its IPO until H2 2026?

    Ant Group-backed GCash, the most successful Philippine payments platform, has been eyeing an initial public offering (IPO) for several years. It achieved profitability in 2021, three years ahead of target. Having hit that milestone four years ago and boasting 94 million users, the company seems like it should be primed to go public.

    In fact, in June 2023, Ernest Cu, chairman of Mynt (the fintech firm that operates GCash), told Bloomberg that GCash was “pretty much ripe for it.” About a year later, he said, “We want to do it sooner rather than later. Sometime in 2025 would be the best estimate I can give you.”

    As it turns out, that estimate was overly optimistic. In late October, Bloomberg reported that GCash had decided to postpone its market debut until the second half of 2026. It is easy to see why: As of November 12, the Philippine stock market (PSEi) is down 10-11% year-to-date. On November 11, it hit a five-year nadir of 5,629.07. Investor pessimism has prevailed this year given global economic jitters linked to mercurial United States trade policy and a domestic corruption probe related to large-scale infrastructure projects.

    Some analysts believe the market may be near a bottom but emphasize that regaining confidence requires clear and credible government action, such as accelerating infrastructure spending and addressing governance issues. When that happens is anyone’s guess, but GCash’s management is betting that overall market conditions will have improved enough by the second half of next year to go ahead with its long-awaited IPO. 

    While some fintech startups face heavy pressure from venture capital investors impatient for an exit, GCash’s situation is different. Its key investors include the Philippine telecoms giant Globe (which owns 36% of Mynt, the fintech firm that operates GCash), Ant Group, and Japan’s UFJ Financial Group. These cash-rich corporates can afford to wait for better market conditions before cashing out.

    At the same time, GCash is in a strong financial position. During Business World’s One-on-One online interview series on September 29, Globe Telecom Inc. President Carl Raymond Cruz said that GCash does not need capital. It [GCash]generates its own capital so the need for an IPO technically, while it’s there, [is] not really high on the agenda right now,” he said. 

    Another factor contributing to GCash’s cautious IPO approach is the pressure on earnings caused by recent regulatory curbs on online gambling transactions. Such transactions previously helped the company rapidly grow its user base. Globe’s latest financial statements show that net contributions from affiliates, mainly Mynt, fell 24% sequentially in the third quarter to P1.6 billion from P2.1 billion in the June quarter. 

    During Globe’s third-quarter earnings call, chief financial officer Carlo Pruno said, “We do believe may see some pressure in the short term.” However, he added that Globe is confident in GCash’s medium and long-term growth given its strong fundamentals. 

    Meanwhile, GCash is continuing to prepare for its market debut. On Oct. 29, the Philippines’ BusinessWorld reported that Mynt had secured approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for its stock split, an importantstep toward its eventual IPO. The SEC’s approval allows Mynt to increase its common shares to P71.66 billion, at three centavos each, while keeping its authorized capital stock at P2.15 billion. A stock split boosts the number of shares without altering the company’s overall capitalization, effectively making each share more affordable and improving liquidity.

    Investor anticipation about the GCash IPO remains high, despite the delay. Analysts say the deal could raise $1.5 billion and be the Philippines’ biggest of all time, surpassing the $1 billion IPO of Philippine food company Monde Nissin in 2021.

    In this case, good things may indeed come to those who wait.